Peramalan Harga Bawang Merah Di Balikpapan Menggunakan Metode Hybrid SARIMA Neural Network

Charistian, Haryanto Arnol (2023) Peramalan Harga Bawang Merah Di Balikpapan Menggunakan Metode Hybrid SARIMA Neural Network. Bachelor thesis, Institut Teknologi Kalimantan.

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Abstract

Bawang merah merupakan komoditas rempah yang berfungsi sebagai bumbu penyedap makanan serta bahan obat tradisional. Menurut Yusral dalam penelitiannya di tahun 2017, pertumbuhan masyarakat di Indonesia yang semakin meningkat membuat konsumsi bawang merah di Indonesia juga terus mengalami peningkatan setiap tahunnya. Sedangkan dari segi produksi, pada tahun 2022 produksi bawang merah mengalami penurunan dari tahun sebelumnya. Hal ini dikarenakan curah hujan tinggi yang mengakibatkan tanaman bawang merah diserang hama. Hal ini mengakibatkan melonjaknya harga bawang merah di Indonesia, terutama di Kalimantan Timur. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan peramalan harga bawang merah di Balikpapan dengan tujuan untuk mengantisipasi gejolak harga bawang merah yang ada di Balikpapan dan juga mengantisipasi kerugian terkait hal hal yang akan terjadi. Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah Metode Hybrid SARIMA Neural Network. Metode Hybrid SARIMA Neural Network merupakan metode peramalan yang menggabungkan model linier dan non-linear dalam analisis time series. Hasil penelitian ini diperoleh empat model SARIMA, antara lain model SARIMA(0,1,0)(1,1,0)^12, model SARIMA([2],1,0)(0,1,0)^12, model SARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)^12 dan model SARIMA(0,1,[2])(0,1,0)^12 Selanjutnya, dilakukan perbaikan model menggunakan backpropagation neural network dan diperoleh model terbaik yaitu BPNN(2-4-1). Setelah dilakukan prediksi diperoleh nilai MAPE sebesar 19,64% (hasil peramalan baik).

Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor)
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Divisions: Jurusan Matematika dan Teknologi Informasi > Matematika
Depositing User: Haryanto Arnol Charistian
Date Deposited: 20 Jul 2023 07:11
Last Modified: 20 Jul 2023 07:11
URI: http://repository.itk.ac.id/id/eprint/19990

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