Lumintang, Indah Ayu (2025) Perbandingan Fuzzy Time Series Chen dan Lee pada Produksi Minyak di PT. WK East Kalimantan - Submit Jurnal. Bachelor thesis, Institut Teknologi Kalimantan.
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Abstract
Peramalan produksi minyak merupakan aspek penting dalam manajemen dan perencanaan strategis di industri minyak dan gas. PT.WK East Kalimantan, merupakan sebuah perusahaan yang berfokus pada produksi minyak dan gas, menghadapi tantangan dalam memprediksi produksi minyak akibat pola fluktuatuf dan sumur minyak yang menua. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan akurasi dalam melakukan prediksi produksi minyak menggunakan model fuzzy time series (Chen dan Lee). Penelitian menggunakan data sekunder yang dikumpulkan dari November 2018 hinga Desember 2023 yang berasal sumur Attaka yang dimiliki oleh PT. WK East Kalimantan. Akurasi model dievaluasi menggunakan Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa model Lee lebih unggul dibandingkan model Chen, denga nilai MAPE sebesar 4,28% (menunjukan akurasi sangat baik) dibandingkan MAPE model Chen sebesar 24,286%. Selain itu, model Lee memiliki RMSE lebih rendah sebesar 124,52 dibandingkan model peramalan produksi minyak di PT.WK East Kalimantan. Namun, penelitian ini juga menyoroti keterbatasan model fuzzy time series dalam peramalan jangka panjang, sehingga disarankan pendekatan hybrid untuk meningkatkan akurasi.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Divisions: | Jurusan Matematika dan Teknologi Informasi > Statistik |
| Depositing User: | Indah Ayu Lumintang |
| Date Deposited: | 08 Jan 2025 05:31 |
| Last Modified: | 08 Jan 2025 05:31 |
| URI: | http://repository.itk.ac.id/id/eprint/21960 |
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