Hierarchical Time Series Berbasis SARIMA Untuk Peramalan Produksi Kelapa Sawit Di PTPN IV Regional V Kalimantan Timur

Agustina, Devi (2026) Hierarchical Time Series Berbasis SARIMA Untuk Peramalan Produksi Kelapa Sawit Di PTPN IV Regional V Kalimantan Timur. Bachelor thesis, Institut Teknologi Kalimantan.

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Abstract

Produksi kelapa sawit merupakan komponen penting dalam industri perkebunan yang memerlukan perencanaan produksi secara akurat. Data produksi kelapa sawit di PTPN IV Regional V Kalimantan Timur tersusun secara hierarkis dari tingkat kebun hingga regional serta menunjukkan pola musiman. Kondisi tersebut menuntut metode peramalan yang mampu menghasilkan ramalan yang konsisten antarlevel agregasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan membangun model peramalan produksi kelapa sawit menggunakan pendekatan Hierarchical Time Series (HTS) berbasis Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), membandingkan pendekatan bottom-up dan top-down, serta menghasilkan peramalan produksi di PTPN IV Regional V Kalimantan Timur. Data yang digunakan berupa data produksi kelapa sawit bulanan pada tingkat kebun dan regional. Tahapan analisis meliputi identifikasi pola data, pengujian stasioneritas, transformasi Box–Cox, differencing, identifikasi model menggunakan plot ACF dan PACF, estimasi parameter, serta uji diagnostik residual. Model SARIMA kemudian direkonsiliasi menggunakan pendekatan bottom-up dan top-down. Evaluasi akurasi dilakukan menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), dan Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan bottom-up memberikan kinerja terbaik dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 29,59%, MAE sebesar 679,42, dan RMSE sebesar 983,25. Hasil peramalan tahun 2026 menunjukkan bahwa produksi regional mencapai nilai tertinggi pada Oktober sebesar 8.017,42 ton dan terendah pada Juli sebesar 4.528,27 ton, dengan pola produksi pada masing-masing kebun yang relatif mengikuti pola produksi regional.

Item Type:	Thesis (Bachelor)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics S Agriculture > SB Plant culture
Divisions:	Jurusan Matematika dan Teknologi Informasi > Statistik
Depositing User:	Devi Agustina
Date Deposited:	06 Jul 2026 02:00
Last Modified:	06 Jul 2026 02:00
URI:	http://repository.itk.ac.id/id/eprint/25661

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