PREDIKSI TINGKAT CUSTOMER CHURN DAN ANALISIS SURVIVAL INDIBIZ TELKOM REGIONAL IV KALIMANTAN MENGGUNAKAN DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN COX PROPORTIONAL HAZARD-Submit Jurnal

Ramadhani, Salma Nabila (2026) PREDIKSI TINGKAT CUSTOMER CHURN DAN ANALISIS SURVIVAL INDIBIZ TELKOM REGIONAL IV KALIMANTAN MENGGUNAKAN DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN COX PROPORTIONAL HAZARD-Submit Jurnal. Bachelor thesis, Institut Teknologi Kalimantan.

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Abstract

Customer churn merupakan permasalahan yang dihadapi perusahaan penyedia layanan telekomunikasi karena dapat memengaruhi keberlanjutan perusahaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis customer churn layanan IndiBiz Telkom Regional IV Kalimantan serta mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi waktu bertahan pelanggan. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing Brown untuk meramalkan tingkat customer churn berdasarkan data deret waktu bulanan. Selain itu, analisis survival digunakan untuk memodelkan waktu hingga terjadinya customer churn dengan menggunakan Cox Proportional Hazard sebagai model awal yang selanjutnya dikembangkan menjadi Cox Extended. Variabel yang digunakan meliputi Jenis Pelanggan, Masa Berlangganan, Jenis Produk, Total Add-On layanan, dan Average Revenue per User (ARPU). Penentuan parameter optimal pada metode Double Exponential Smoothing Brown dilakukan menggunakan Grid Search dengan evaluasi berdasarkan nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode Double Exponential Smoothing Brown menghasilkan parameter optimal sebesar α = 0,3 dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 17,911%. Hasil peramalan menunjukkan bahwa tingkat customer churn pada tiga periode mendatang diprediksi mengalami penurunan bertahap sebesar 9,40%, 8,42%, dan 7,43%. Pada analisis survival, hasil pengujian asumsi proportional hazard menunjukkan bahwa model awal belum sepenuhnya memenuhi asumsi proportional hazard sehingga dilakukan pengembangan model menggunakan Cox Extended melalui pembentukan time-dependent variable MB_LOGT. Hasil perbandingan model menunjukkan bahwa Cox Extended memiliki performa yang lebih baik dibandingkan Cox Proportional Hazard dengan nilai AIC sebesar 216151,5 dan C-Index sebesar 0,933. Variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap risiko customer churn adalah Jenis Pelanggan, Masa Berlangganan, Jenis Produk, Total Add-On, dan ARPU. Selain itu, signifikansi dari variabel interaksi MB_LOGT menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh Masa Berlangganan terhadap risiko customer churn berubah seiring waktu pengamatan. Variabel Jenis Pelanggan merupakan variabel yang paling dominan memengaruhi risiko customer churn dengan nilai hazard ratio sebesar 3,392. Kata kunci: customer churn, Cox Proportional Hazard, Cox Extended, Double Exponential Smoothing Brown

Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor)
Subjects: A General Works > AS Academies and learned societies (General)
Divisions: Jurusan Matematika dan Teknologi Informasi > Ilmu Aktuaria
Depositing User: Salma Nabila Ramadhani
Date Deposited: 14 Jul 2026 01:00
Last Modified: 14 Jul 2026 01:00
URI: http://repository.itk.ac.id/id/eprint/26717

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