Ariyani, Novita Nava (2026) PERAMALAN JUMLAH KEDATANGAN PENUMPANG DOMESTIK MENGGUNAKAN METODE SARIMAX DENGAN FAKTOR EKSTERNAL CALENDAR VARIATION DAN COVID-19 Studi Kasus: PT. Angkasa Pura I (Persero) Kota Balikpapan. Bachelor thesis, Institut Teknologi Kalimantan.
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Abstract
Transportasi udara memegang andil yang sangat vital dalam mempercepat mobilitas dan memacu roda perekonomian, terutama bagi Kota Balikpapan yang kini memegang peran strategis sebagai gerbang utama sekaligus pilar penyangga Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN). Pola data kedatangan penumpang domestik di Bandara Internasional Sultan Aji Muhammad Sulaiman (SAMS) Sepinggan PT. Angkasa Pura I (Persero) dikenal sangat dinamis serta sarat akan unsur tren maupun fluktuasi musiman (seasonality). Kendati demikian, performa metode deret waktu (time series) tradisional kerap terganggu oleh faktor eksternal, seperti efek pergeseran tanggal hari raya keagamaan (variasi kalender) serta guncangan struktural yang masif akibat pandemi COVID-19. Guna mengatasi kompleksitas tersebut, penelitian ini diarahkan untuk merumuskan model proyeksi terbaik dengan mengombinasikan pendekatan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Regressors. (SARIMAX), beserta variasi kalender (calendar variation) dan COVID-19 sebagai faktor eksternal. Basis data yang dianalisis merupakan data sekunder jumlah kedatangan penumpang domestik skala bulanan pada PT. Angkasa Pura I Balikpapan. Melalui pendekatan hibrida ini, hasil analisis model terbaik yang ditemukan adalah SARIMAX 〖([15,23],1,[1,2,3])([0],1,[1])〗_12 dengan tingkat akurasi yang tergolong baik, ditunjukkan oleh nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) sebesar 10,9% dan Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) diperoleh 13,18%. Melalui model ini, jumlah penumpang domestik pada tahun 2026 diproyeksikan berkisar antara 341.813 sampai 462.707 orang setiap bulannya. Temuan ini diharapkan dapat menjadi rujukan strategis bagi PT. Angkasa Pura I (Persero) dalam mengoptimalkan perencanaan operasional dan merumuskan kebijakan di masa depan. Kata Kunci: SARIMAX, peramalan, calendar variation, COVID-19, penumpang domestik.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software |
| Divisions: | Jurusan Matematika dan Teknologi Informasi > Matematika |
| Depositing User: | Novita Nava Ariyani |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Jul 2026 08:36 |
| Last Modified: | 23 Jul 2026 08:36 |
| URI: | http://repository.itk.ac.id/id/eprint/27941 |
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