Salfina, Salfina (2025) Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Pesawat Bandar Udara Internasional Sultan Aji Muhammad Sulaiman Sepinggan Menggunakan Intervensi dalam Model ARIMA. Bachelor thesis, Institut Teknologi Kalimantan.
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Abstract
Transportasi udara di Indonesia, terutama melalui Bandara Internasional Sultan Aji Muhammad Sulaiman Sepinggan Balikpapan, memainkan peran penting dalam menghubungkan daerah dan mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi. Data dari BPS menunjukkan penurunan jumlah penumpang pada April tahun 2020 akibat pandemi COVID-19, yang berlanjut pada Mei tahun 2020 sebelum ada pemulihan pada Juni tahun 2020. Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh peraturan Nomor 21 Tahun 2020 yang dikeluarkan pemerintah pada 31 Maret 2020, yang mengatur Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar sebagai respon terdahap COVID-19. Penurunan kembali berlanjut pada Juli tahun 2021 akibat dikeluarkannya Pemberlakuan Pembatasan Kegiatan Masyarakat (PPKM) karena meningkatnya kasus COVID-19. Penelitian ini menggunakan model Autoregressive Moving Average intervensi untuk mengevaluasi dampak pandemi terhadap jumlah penumpang, berdasarkan perubahan pola data yang disebabkan oleh intervensi PSBB dan PPKM. Studi sebelumnya oleh Rianda (2021) dan Hayoto dkk. (2019) telah membuktikan efektivitas model Autoregressive Moving Average dalam meramalkan fluktuasi jumlah penumpang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penurunan jumlah penumpang pesawat yang terjadi termasuk dalam efek dari pulse function dan step function dalam analisis intervensi. Hasil peramalan pada 2024 menunjukkan pola stabil dengan sedikit penurunan di beberapa bulan, seperti Februari, April, Juni, dan Agustus, serta sedikit peningkatan di Maret. Untuk tahun 2025, jumlah penumpang diperkirakan stabil sepanjang tahun.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GA Mathematical geography. Cartography G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GF Human ecology. Anthropogeography H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications H Social Sciences > HM Sociology |
| Divisions: | Jurusan Matematika dan Teknologi Informasi > Statistik |
| Depositing User: | Salfina Salfina |
| Date Deposited: | 08 Jan 2025 08:09 |
| Last Modified: | 08 Jan 2025 08:09 |
| URI: | http://repository.itk.ac.id/id/eprint/22001 |
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