Saputra, Rohand (2025) Peramalan Kebutuhan LPG NonSubsidi 5,5 KG Untuk Rumah Tangga di Kota Balikpapan. Bachelor thesis, Institut Teknologi Kalimantan.
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Abstract
Konsumsi energi rumah tangga, khususnya LPG, terus meningkat seiring pertumbuhan penduduk dan kebijakan pengalihan subsidi gas. Dengan meningkatnya konsumsi LPG dan peralihan dari LPG subsidi 3 kg ke non-subsidi, dapat terjadi ketidakseimbangan antara produksi dan permintaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan menunjukkan adanya kecenderungan musiman (seasonal) sekaligus tren kenaikan, sehingga pemilihan metode peramalan dilakukan dengan mempertimbangkan karakteristik tersebut. Oleh karena itu, digunakan empat metode: Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, dan Triple Exponential Smoothing . Hasil peramalan Moving Average munjukkan peningkatan sebesar 7,58%. Single Exponential Smoothing menujukkan peningkatan sebesar 8,53%. Double Exponential Smoothing mununjukkan peningkatan sebesar 9,47%. Dan Tripel Exponential Smoothing menujukkan peningkatan sebsar 8,07%. Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan bahwa metode Moving Average menghasilkan nilai akurasi peramalan sebesar 98,06%. Metode Single Exponential Smoothing (α = 0,7) memberikan hasil akurasi peramalan sebesar 98,23%. Triple Exponential Smoothing (α = 0,1; β = 0,9; γ = 0,9) menghasilkan akurasi peramalan sebesar 98,22%. Lalu, metode Double Exponential Smoothing (α = 0,5; β = 0,1) menghasilkan hasil akurasi peramalan sebesar 98,24%. Berdasarkan hasil tersebut, metode Double Exponential Smoothing dipilih untuk meramalkan penjualan LPG tahun 2025 dikarenakan memiliki nilai akurasi peramalan yang terbaikl. Peramalan untuk tahun 2025 memperkirakan total penjualan sebesar 230.100 tabung, hasil peramalan ini memenuhi 4,44% kebutuhan tahunan rumah tangga. Hasil ini perlu mendapat perhatian penting bagi PT.XYZ selaku pemangku kebijakan distribusi dan produksi LPG di Kota Balikpapan. Untuk mengurangi kesenjangan tersebut, maka direkomendasikan peningkatan produksi dan distribusi LPG non-subsidi 5,5 kg. untuk menganalisis peramalan produksi LPG non-subsidi 5,5 kg untuk rumah tangga di Kota Balikpapan. Pola data penjualan LPG selama tahun 2024.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform |
| Divisions: | Jurusan Teknologi Industri dan Proses > Teknik Industri |
| Depositing User: | Rohand Saputra |
| Date Deposited: | 10 Jul 2025 03:55 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Jul 2025 03:55 |
| URI: | http://repository.itk.ac.id/id/eprint/23542 |
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